Possibilities of peace: Exploring the impact of power-sharing agreements on democratization and state capacity
Authors
Advisors
Issue Date
Type
Keywords
Citation
Abstract
In the aftermath of the Cold War, power-sharing agreements have been increasingly used as possible solutions for civil wars and post-conflict societies that began to emerge with the fall of the bipolar world order. This paper examines how different types of power sharing agreements impact state capacity and democratization in post-conflict societies through quantitative analysis. Building upon existing literature in conflict studies, this research analyzes power-sharing agreements through a four-part typology: political, territorial, military, and mixed agreements. There is some consensus within the field that power-sharing agreements help prevent the recurrence of war, but little agreement about what this means for a society. I have attempted to investigate this by measuring the impact of different kinds of power-sharing agreements as independent variables on state capacity and democratization as dependent variables. This process involved constructing a dataset of 79 power-sharing agreements and running eight statistical tests through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression, with each type of power-sharing agreement tested separately from one another, using the time since each agreement as a control variable. The results of these tests showed military power-sharing agreements and territorial power-sharing practices had a significant impact on both dependent variables. In other words, military agreements, not necessarily the actions of those agreements, are associated with a significant decline in democracy and an increase in state instability, while territorial power-sharing practices are associated with an increase in democracy and a decline in state instability. These findings reinforce previous studies that argue agreements should be considered separately than their implementation (or lack thereof) and that different kinds of power-sharing can have noticeably different results. It also demonstrates there are more factors to the “success” of power-sharing agreements than whether war recurs: it takes more than an absence of war for peace to be meaningful.