Kansas population forecast by age cohort survival method

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Issue Date
2016-04-29
Authors
Darrah, Matthew
Advisor
Busch, Mike
Citation

Darrah, Matthew. 2016. Kansas population forecast by age cohort survival method. --In Proceedings: 12th Annual Symposium on Graduate Research and Scholarly Projects. Wichita, KS: Wichita State University, p. 40

Abstract

Using new data, this paper proposes a method to predict the populations of Kansas counties. The project forecasts the population of all 105 counties of Kansas using an age-cohort survival projection method. The age cohorts are composed of 19 age categories and classified by sex. Each cohort is simulated forward every five years until the year 2064. The projections are driven by variables such as birth, death, and migration rates pulled primarily from the Census Bureau and Kansas Information for Communities. The birth and death rates have been forecasted for the next fifty years using trend analysis of region-specific data. Over the next fifty years, the Kansas population is forecasted to grow slowly. This growth appears to be driven by declining birth rates and slowing death rates for the older population. These trends are strongest in rural communities which face decreasing population while urban populations continue to grow.

Table of Content
Description
Presented to the 12th Annual Symposium on Graduate Research and Scholarly Projects (GRASP) held at the Heskett Center, Wichita State University, April 29, 2016.
Research completed at Department of Economics, Barton School of Business
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