Prediction of voluntary load reduction based on human behaviours during grid emergencies
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Devereaux, Abigail N.
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Abstract
In February 2021, the winter storm Uri swept across several U.S. regions, including Kansas, leaving communities struggling to stay warm as the power grid came under immense strain. To prevent the entire electricity system from collapsing, the system operators overseeing Kansas and 13 other states made a difficult decision: cutting power to consumers as the last resort. Before resorting to outages, they turned to the public with a heartfelt plea: lower your thermostat, turn off unnecessary appliances, and conserve energy in any way possible. The goal was simple, if enough people reduced their electricity use, widespread power cuts could be avoided. And many did to help their neighbors and communities. But despite this collective effort, there was a critical gap in the system: there was no way to measure how much energy people actually saved. Without a mechanism to account for these voluntary reductions, their contributions went unrecognized. Therefore, this research aims to change that. We've developed a way to predict how much electricity people voluntarily save during extreme events. Using census data from 1,000 households in Wichita, Kansas, the model factors in human behavior, motivations, and responses to financial incentives. The findings reveal that households with backup generators and those more informed about financial rewards are more likely to reduce their energy use. This study is about valuing the strength of collective action, ensuring that every small sacrifice made by individuals is acknowledged and to build a system that genuinely supports communities like Kansas during their most challenging moments.
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Presented at the 22nd Annual Capitol Graduate Research Summit, Topeka, KS, March 25, 2025.