A machine learning approach for diagnostic and prognostic predictions, key risk factors and interactions

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Nasir, Murtaza
Summerfield, Nichalin S.
Carreiro, Stephanie
Berlowitz, Dan
Oztekin, Asil
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Business analytics , Decision support systems , Health service , Healthcare , Machine learning
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Nasir, M., Summerfield, N.S., Carreiro, S., Berlowitz, D., Oztekin, A. A machine learning approach for diagnostic and prognostic predictions, key risk factors and interactions. (2024). Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology. DOI: 10.1007/s10742-024-00324-7

Machine learning (ML) has the potential to revolutionize healthcare, allowing healthcare providers to improve patient-care planning, resource planning and utilization. Furthermore, identifying key-risk-factors and interaction-effects can help service-providers and decision-makers to institute better policies and procedures. This study used COVID-19 electronic health record (EHR) data to predict five crucial outcomes: positive-test, ventilation, death, hospitalization days, and ICU days. Our models achieved high accuracy and precision, with AUC values of 91.6%, 99.1%, and 97.5% for the first three outcomes, and MAE of 0.752 and 0.257 days for the last two outcomes. We also identified interaction effects, such as high bicarbonate in arterial blood being associated with longer hospitalization in middle-aged patients. Our models are embedded in a prototype of an online decision support tool that can be used by healthcare providers to make more informed decisions. © The Author(s) 2024.

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Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology
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