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    The disutility of the hard-easy effect in choice confidence

    Date
    2009-02
    Author
    Merkle, Edgar C.
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    Citation
    Psychonomic bulletin & review. 2009 Feb; 16(1): 204-13.
    Abstract
    A common finding in confidence research is the hard-easy effect, in which judges exhibit greater overconfidence for more difficult sets of questions. Many explanations have been advanced for the hard-easy effect, including systematic cognitive mechanisms, experimenter bias, random error, and statistical artifact. In this article, I mathematically derive necessary and sufficient conditions for observing a hard-easy effect, and I relate these conditions to previous explanations for the effect. I conclude that all types of judges exhibit the hard-easy effect in almost all realistic situations. Thus, the effect's presence cannot be used to distinguish between judges or to draw support for specific models of confidence elicitation.
    Description
    Click on the DOI link below to access the article (may not be free).
    URI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/PBR.16.1.204
    http://hdl.handle.net/10057/4643
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