Hydrocarbons and conflict: Evaluating natural gas and militarized interstate disputes
Citation
Lett, Dominik David. 2022.
Hydrocarbons and conflict: Evaluating natural gas and militarized interstate disputes -- In Proceedings: 21st Annual Undergraduate Research and Creative Activity Forum. Wichita, KS: Wichita State University, p. 33
Abstract
To what extent does dependence on fossil fuels affect the likelihood of
militarized interstate disputes? Existing literature evaluating the relationship between
hydrocarbons and conflict primarily focus on the impact of oil. Because natural gas
represents an increasing important hydrocarbon, this study seeks to determine the
relationship between natural gas and militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Independent
variables are operationalized as annual consumption and production of natural gas in
billion cubic meters as well as reserves of natural gas in trillion cubic meters. Two dyadic
and two monadic datasets were generated using R and SPSS with data obtained from the
Correlates of War (COW) MIDB 5.0 and COW Dyadic MID 3.1 as well as the 2020 BP
Statistical Review of World Energy. Binary logistic regressions generated statistically
significant results for all three variables in most models. Undirected results for both
dyadic and monadic datasets suggest a strong positive relationship between MIDs and
both the consumption and reserve variables. Additional directed dyadic tests indicate
states with large natural gas reserves tend to be targeted more frequently by aggressor
states. The results remain robust to a variety of controls and changes in model
specification. Analysis of the data offers several novel contributions to existing literature,
opportunities for further research, and implications for policymakers.
Description
Presented to the 21st Undergraduate Research and Creative Activity Forum (URCAF) held at the Rhatigan Student Center, Wichita State University, April 15, 2022.