Irreversibility, uncertainty and housing investment
Miles, William
Miles, William
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2009-02
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Article
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Housing,Investment,Irreversibility
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Citation
Miles, W. J Real Estate Finance Econ (2009) 38: 173
Abstract
Housing represents a form of "irreversible" investment. Theoretically, increased uncertainty should lower housing investment. Empirically, finding a proxy for uncertainty has proven problematic. Some recent papers have investigated the effect of uncertainty on real estate investment, with varying proxies for uncertainty and mixed results. This paper employs a technique used in modern macroeconomic studies, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean model, which has been shown to correspond as closely as any known measure to theoretical concepts of uncertainty. Results indicate that uncertainty indeed has a negative impact on housing starts.
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Springer
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Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics;v.38:no.2
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0895-5638