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Beyond the usual climate? Factors determining flowering and fruiting phenology across a genus over 117 years
Bartlett, Kelsey B. Austin, Matthew W. Beck, James B. Zanne, Amy E. Smith, Adam B.
Bartlett, Kelsey B.
Austin, Matthew W.
Beck, James B.
Zanne, Amy E.
Smith, Adam B.
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2023-07-01
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Article
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Keywords
Brassicaceae,Gladecress,Global change,Leavenworthia,Phenological shift,Precipitation,Relative humidity,Temperature,Variance partitioning,Winter annual
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Citation
Bartlett, Kelsey B., Austin, Matthew W., Beck, James B., Zanne, Amy E., and Smith, Adam B.. 2023. Beyond the usual climate? Factors determining flowering and fruiting phenology across a genus over 117 years. American Journal of Botany 110( 7): e16188. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.16188
Abstract
Premise
Although changes in plant phenology are largely attributed to changes in climate, the roles of other factors such as genetic constraints, competition, and self-compatibility are underexplored. Methods We compiled >900 herbarium records spanning 117 years for all eight nominal species of the winter-annual genus Leavenworthia (Brassicaceae). We used linear regression to determine the rate of phenological change across years and phenological sensitivity to climate. Using a variance partitioning analysis, we assessed the relative influence of climatic and nonclimatic factors (self-compatibility, range overlap, latitude, and year) on Leavenworthia reproductive phenology.
Results
Flowering advanced by ~2.0 days and fruiting by ~1.3 days per decade. For every 1°C increase in spring temperature, flowering advanced ~2.3 days and fruiting ~3.3 days. For every 100?mm decrease in spring precipitation, each advanced ~6–7 days. The best models explained 35.4% of flowering variance and 33.9% of fruiting. Spring precipitation accounted for 51.3% of explained variance in flowering date and 44.6% in fruiting. Mean spring temperature accounted for 10.6% and 19.3%, respectively. Year accounted for 16.6% of flowering variance and 5.4% of fruiting, and latitude for 2.3% and 15.1%, respectively. Nonclimatic variables combined accounted for <11% of the variance across phenophases.
Conclusions
Spring precipitation and other climate-related factors were dominant predictors of phenological variance. Our results emphasize the strong effect of precipitation on phenology, especially in the moisture-limited habitats preferred by Leavenworthia. Among the many factors that determine phenology, climate is the dominant influence, indicating that the effects of climate change on phenology are expected to increase.
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This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided theoriginal work is properly cited.
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Journal
American Journal of Botany
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0002-9122